My PHP framework winner predictions
First up, I can only claim to be an expert in Symfony2. My knowledge of other PHP frameworks basically consists of actively following twitter for things related to PHP, reading planet-php.org and taking the time to read up on linked mailing list threads and IRC chat logs. I have not been that active on the conference scene in the past few years, but the ones where I did attend I also tried to take a peek at what others are doing. Also this post is kind of exploratory to see what other people think, hopefully without inviting a flame fest upon myself. So with this disclaimer out of the way, I think the big 3 frameworks for the next few years will be Lithium, Zend Framework 2 and Symfony2.
Let me first start with Lithium. I do not think that it will hold a gigantic market share, but it will have a constant following that is noticeable enough to make it less niche than other frameworks. From what I have seen it its main differentiating characteristic is that provides AOP leveraging closures to enable flexibility without going down to road of deep complex class inheritance. This makes it very well suited for people working in smaller teams that have very custom needs and those that tend to be wary of frameworks that do too much. Obviously closures can be shared, but they are not the ideal approach if you want to really push the concept of code reusability in the "plugin" sense.
Zend Framework 2 is still actively under development. For a while it seems things have been lingering but now ZF2 has picked up steam and I expect that they will be able to show their vision of how things are supposed to work with some practical examples at ZendCon. Overall I don't think that Zend Framework 2 will bring much innovation in terms of MVC, but that is not necessary. The main thing they will have to offer is a complete stack that is well documented and tested. Their loyal fan base especially in the US, plus their strong marketing position will do the rest to ensure that they will continue to be a key player. Also many developers will end up combing the libraries offered in Zend Framework 2 with whatever other full stack framework they use. So there will likely be a bit of Zend Framework 2 in many projects that do not use their MVC. Finally those people that buy into the CLA idea, thinking that it can stop a patent troll from taking them to court in the US, will also prefer Zend Framework 2. As I have stated numerous times, I think Zend is doing a huge disservice to the community with their FUD campaign and false promises of security. But in terms of business it might still make sense for them and could have enabled them to close some deals with "enterprise" customers.
Symfony2 is my personal favorite so hopefully I am not just being biased when I say that it will be the one leading the pack. It already has the stable release out the door, contrary to Zend Framework 2, which has given it a lot of momentum. This shows itself also in the rapidly growing number of Bundles (plugins in Symphony lingo). The fact that phpBB and Midgard will be based on Symfony2, while Drupal 8 will use multiple components from Symfony2 in its core are also significant wins. In the PHP world all too few applications are based on full stack frameworks and in the past it was really only Zend Framework that managed to get high profile open source applications like Magento to be build on them (then again Magento put their very own spin on MVC). The big challenge for Symfony2 is now how to manage the success, specifically figure out how to best ensure that potential users are not lost in a sea of Bundles that eventually might be redundant and/or ill maintained. The symfony2bundles.org site tries to combat this with a dynamic rating system based on github stats, but this might not be enough. Furthermore the documentation needs to improve, most importantly for the components. On the upside many of the components can be seen in action in the much simpler Silex micro framework spin-off, which will likely drive adoption both ways. Aka I expect some people to come to Silex via Symfony2 (like we here at Liip have used it for a simple project where we just needed to make some data accessible via backbonejs) and some people will come to Symfony2 via Silex.
Truncated by Planet PHP, read more at the original (another 1205 bytes)